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Sri Lankans vote to keep Rajapaksa out
Sri Lankans vote to keep Rajapaksa out The Sri Lankan electorate confirmed in the 17 August parliamentary elections that they do not want former president Mahinda Rajapaksa to be part of the next...
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Georgia / Russia | New NATO training centre opened near Tbilisi
The NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg inaugurated a new NATO-Georgia joint military training and evaluation centre in Krtsanisi, 20km south of Tbilisi, on 27 August. The opening of the training...
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The mystery of the Bangkok bombing
This article is the leader from our August Terrorism Tracker newsletter. Terrorism has struck the tourism sector yet again, this time in Thailand. The attack in central Bangkok on 17 August at the...
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Turkey | August saw highest levels of PKK violence in five years
PKK-related violence continues to rise in southeastern Turkey. There have been seven times as many attacks by the PKK and affiliated groups so far in 2015 compared with all of 2014, with over 50...
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Zambia | Copper output cuts threaten weak economy
The outlook for Zambia’s economy is poor, with several domestic and external factors threatening to destabilise it. Particular risks are a collapse of the currency (kwacha), the implementation of...
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Pakistan | Revenge attacks on military remain TTP priority
An attack on the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) base in Badaber, south of Peshawar, killed at least 29 people and wounded at least 29 more on 18 September. The TTP claimed responsibility for the assault,...
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Syria/Iran/Turkey | Preliminary assessment of risks to civil aviation from...
Russia launched cruise missile strikes against targets in Syria from naval positions in the Caspian Sea last Wednesday. According to the Russian defence minister, ‘26 sea-based cruise missiles’ fired...
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Myanmar | The general election: risks and forecast
Key Points We assess that the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) will almost certainly emerge from the 8 November general election as the largest political party in parliament. However,...
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Tunisia | Infighting within ruling party threatens political crisis
There are signs that because of internal disputes, the ruling party will no longer be the biggest in parliament. On Sunday, protests by rival factions within Nidaa Tounes (NT) turned violent outside a...
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Iran | Progress on nuclear deal, but sanctions relief months off
The nuclear deal (or JCPOA) reached between Iran and the P5+1 in July has been proceeding, for the most part, on schedule. This, and the fact that the agreement has been upheld by both the US Congress...
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France | Assessment and implications of the Paris attacks
In conducting its attack on Paris last Friday, Islamic State (IS) proved that it is capable of what Western security officials had feared and foretold: a complex assault on a European capital city...
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Brazil | Impeachment process opened against President Rousseff
The speaker of the lower house of the Brazilian congress announced on Wednesday that he had opened impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff. Two-thirds of the lower house of congress...
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Indonesia | Risks around regional politics and decentralisation
Regional elections were held in nine of Indonesia’s 34 provinces on 9 December – the first time that elections for provinces, regencies and cities have taken place simultaneously. The results are due...
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GCC | Implications of worsening relations with Iran
Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Sudan swiftly followed Saudi Arabia’s lead in downgrading diplomatic relations with Iran. They were subsequently joined by Qatar and Somalia. Both Bahrain and Saudi Arabia...
View ArticleStrategic Outlook 2016
The Strategic Outlook 2016 is the second edition of our annual global forecast. It attempts to interpret and foresee how wider political, economic and social trajectories may influence security and...
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Iran | Tentative forecast for February elections
Elections in Iran next month will be central in determining the country’s political and economic direction in the coming years, and how the nuclear deal is likely to change these. Public ballots for...
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Pakistan | Government privatisation plans lead to further protests
A strike by employees of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) in early February was symptomatic of the government’s wider problem of how to tackle the privatisation of loss-making state-owned...
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South China Sea | Chinese missile deployment applies diplomatic and military...
Less than 24 hours after President Obama called for ‘tangible steps in the South China Sea to lower tensions’, the US this week confirmed China’s ‘apparent deployment’ of an advanced missile system on...
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Malaysia | Western governments amend terrorism warnings
Since 18 February, both the UK and Australian governments have amended their travel advisories for Malaysia citing the threat of terrorism to Western interests in the country. We have not seen any...
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Zimbabwe | Coup is a credible scenario this year
A coup is a credible scenario this year, as Grace Mugabe appears to be positioning herself to succeed her husband as president of Zimbabwe. In doing so, she is splitting the governing Zanu-PF party,...
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