Zimbabwe | VP well positioned to succeed Mugabe
The ruling ZANU-PF party endorsed Robert Mugabe as its candidate for the 2018 presidential election at a conference just before Christmas. But we think that old age, poor health, and deteriorating...
View ArticleMilitary Intervention in The Gambia Now More Likely
The Gambia’s Supreme Court was supposed to hold a hearing on a petition to annul the December presidential election, brought by the country’s current President Yahya Jammeh, who lost the election....
View ArticleRussia | The prospects of US lifting sanctions
It is probable that the US will repeal some sanctions against Russia almost immediately after the president-elect, Donald Trump, takes office. Public announcements by Trump suggest that he hopes to...
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Flash briefing | The Gambia and West Africa: Implications of political change...
Risk Advisory is pleased to invite corporate security professionals to a flash briefing on The Gambia and West Africa on 27 January. The Gambia has its first new president in 22 years, after ECOWAS...
View ArticleRussia | Trump lifting Russia sanctions?
Rumours have spread almost overnight in both Washington and Moscow that Donald Trump has a draft executive order on his desk lifting or seriously softening economic sanctions against Russia. The order...
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Strategic Outlook 2017
We are pleased to present our Strategic Outlook 2017. This is our third global forecast for corporate security leaders. It represents the joint assessments of our Security Intelligence & Analysis...
View ArticleTurkey | Referendum likely to narrowly back reforms
The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) announced last week that it will not challenge the government’s constitutional reform bill in court. This removes the final legal hurdle to the...
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Netherlands | Forecast for results of upcoming general election
The far-right PVV party will probably be the largest party in parliament after a general election in the Netherlands on 15 March. But there is no prospect of it entering government. We forecast that...
View ArticleBelgium | Mixed reports of possible terrorist activity
Police in Brussels have said that a vehicle carrying gas canisters, which they stopped on 2 March, was not rigged as an explosive device. They have since released the driver, but it is unclear whether...
View ArticleKorean Peninsula | Missile tests increase chance of policy shifts
North Korea test fired four missiles into the Sea of Japan on 6 March. The launches were its second test in a little over three weeks, and the first since Pyongyang threatened ‘strong retaliatory...
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